Australia’s Renewable Energy Outlook 2026.

Australia’s renewable energy sector is entering a pivotal period. Over the next 12 to 18 months, the industry will likely be tested not only on how many projects it can deliver, but on how well it manages the complex interaction between communities, technology, workforce, and existing infrastructure. 

Having worked across grid connection, engineering delivery, and community engagement in the industry, I’ve seen how these factors can determine whether a project succeeds or stalls. Developers who take a holistic, forward-looking approach are likely to be better positioned to succeed.

Unlocking grid capacity

Grid connection remains a major challenge for new projects. Waiting for new transmission lines is not the only solution. In regional New South Wales, there may be material latent capacity in parts of the existing transmission network that could support additional connections, subject to network studies and approvals. Leveraging this latent capacity, combined with flexible or off-peak connection arrangements, allows projects to move forward in the short-term, while the industry can plan for longer-term network expansion.

Making use of existing infrastructure can help accelerate delivery of projects, and may support renewable energy deployment, while potentially minimising additional impacts on landholders and communities. I expect the discussion about the opportunity presented by latent capacity is likely to intensify in 2026 and beyond, particularly for onshore wind projects.  

Delivering smarter projects through technology 

Beyond optimising existing infrastructure, technology can offer another route to faster, more efficient deployment. Practices widely used in some overseas markets, such as digital twins, robotics, automation, and modular construction, are being adopted in Australia. Modular construction—where key components are prefabricated offsite and then quickly assembled on location—can allow for faster deployment, more consistent quality, and reduced on-site labour requirements. This speed can translate into increased project efficiency and potentially lower costs, making it easier to, in some cases, deliver more projects within tight timelines. I consider wider and more consistent adoption of these methods in future, to be an important enabler of efficient scaling and meeting growing demand.

Design and engineering in renewable energy is likely to continue to move away from bespoke, site-specific designs and toward standardised, low-carbon modules. Integrating design, construction, and operations planning from the outset is no longer optional—it is increasingly important. I envisage a future where digital integration is the norm, helping to reduce costs, mitigate risk, and support the delivery of durable projects. I expect modern construction contracts to routinely include robust digital asset management and cybersecurity provisions, making early collaboration between engineering and IT teams critical. Projects that embrace these practices are likely to be better positioned to succeed in a rapidly evolving regulatory and technological landscape.

Communities as partners, not bystanders

Community engagement in renewable energy is evolving, but there is still a long way to go. Communities increasingly expect more than consultation alone—they are seeking meaningful, long-term partnerships and, in many cases, a genuine commercial stake in projects that affect their land and livelihoods. 

First Nations communities provide a clear example of how this shift is taking shape. For example, a 2022 report by Indigenous Clean Energy (with the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices) states that First Nations, Métis and Inuit entities are partners or beneficiaries of almost 20% of Canada’s electricity-generating infrastructure—almost all of which is producing renewable energy. Australia is slower but beginning to follow a similar path, with equity-sharing models, such as those pioneered by AMPYR Australia in partnership with local First Nations communities, increasingly regarded as a leading approach for providing equity stakes and revenue sharing.

For example, the Bulabul Battery project in Wellington includes a 5 per cent equity stake held by Wamabl Bila, the Wellington Aboriginal community’s investment vehicle, as part of a commercial partnership with AMPYR Australia. According to reporting at the time, that equity interest could deliver between $20-$30 million in revenue over the project’s 25-year lifespan, with revenue intended to be invested in the future of the Wellington Aboriginal community. By involving First Nation communities at this level, the industry is taking steps toward an important part of the renewable energy transition. There is a strong case for prioritising longer-term economic empowerment in the regional and rural communities directly impacted by these projects, alongside shorter-term returns. The growth of self-determined commercial arrangements has the potential to  raise the standard of industry engagement with First Nations communities, and support long-term economic outcomes for these communities. 

Community hubs are needed

Compounding the challenge of effective community engagement is consultation fatigue, which can arise when multiple developers approach communities in fragmented, ad-hoc ways, leading some communities to become fatigued by a decentralised approach. In response, some proponents are establishing centralised and dedicated community information hubs to provide a central place for communities to access clear and consistent information and engage with project teams. One example is the Community Information Centre in Mudgee, launched by ACEREZ and EnergyCo, which serves as a central hub for locals to learn more about the Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone transmission project and what it means for the region, including access to project details and construction progress updates as well as information on job and business and landowner support. 

By coordinating and centralising outreach for projects, developers can use these hubs to help address concerns collectively, potentially reduce consultation fatigue, better reflect community priorities and support trust and engagement over time. This approach may assist communities to see the broader regional context, rather than experiencing repeated project-by-project consultation. 

Workforce realities

By 2030, Australia is projected to face a shortfall of around 42,000 energy trade workers, alongside an apprenticeship deficit of around 22,000, reflecting a decline in training activity over the past decade. Addressing this challenge is likely to require continued investment and innovation in workforce development. For example, according to several infrastructure bodies, in some parts of the transport sector, civil contractors are upskilling existing teams to work with higher-voltage electrical infrastructure, expanding capabilities to support more complex project delivery. Structured labour programs, targeted certification and language training can form part of a holistic workforce strategy.

These initiatives are focused not only on addressing immediate skill needs, but also on supporting the development of workforce capability over time. One example is the newly announced Essential Energy Training Academy, which is intended to deliver accredited courses and hands-on training across regional New South Wales. The Academy intends to provide hands-on training for up to 1,000 people per year in areas including renewable energy, electrotechnology and distribution networks. Investment in workforce development at this scale, may help support project delivery and provide longer-term skills and opportunities in regional communities as the energy transition progresses.

Related article: Renewables construction has tripled, forecast to reach $23B

Turning challenges into opportunities

The next 12 to 18 months are likely to be a defining period for Australia’s renewable energy sector. The nation’s articulated targets—including reducing emissions to 62-70% below 2005 levels by 2035—highlight the importance of timely progress. Meeting these ambitions will require coordinated action across the broader ecosystem: including developers, regulators, governments, supply chains and communities.

To stay on track, the industry will need to continue to focus on unlocking existing grid capacity, adopting modular and digital construction approaches, addressing workforce shortages and embedding meaningful community engagement. These are not incremental changes that can be addressed in isolation over time, rather they represent significant shifts that may be required to support delivery, ease bottlenecks and enable projects to progress at scale. 

Australia has a clear opportunity to progress toward its renewable energy targets and generate social and economic value, but delays carry material risk. The next 18 months will be important in shaping whether clean energy ambitions are achieved. Those working across the industry who engage early and collaboratively can help influence the development of a more resilient, equitable and low-carbon energy system.

This article contains general commentary and forward-looking statements based on current information. Actual outcomes may vary due to external factors.